Jannik Sinner will take on Carlos Alcaraz in the final of the Italian Open. Alcaraz leads the head-to-head against Sinner 6-4, and defeated him most recently in the 2024 China Open.
Sinner is arguably the best player in the world at the moment. After a successful title defence in the Australian Open, he was sidelined for three months due to doping charges. He tested positive for a banned substance called clostebol.
The 23-year-old started his campaign in Rome by cruising past Mariano Navone, Jesper De Jong, Francisco Cerundolo and Casper Ruud in the initial few rounds. He then overpowered Tommy Paul in the semifinal, 1-6, 6-0, 6-3. Sinner won 72% of his first serve points and fired four aces against the American.
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Meanwhile, Carlos Alcaraz has made an optimisitic start to the season. After a quarterfinal exit in the Australian Open, he secured title-winning runs in Rotterdam and Monte Carlo. He also reached the semifinals in Indian Wells and secured a runner-up finish in Barcelona.
The Spaniard missed the Madrid Open last month due to fitness issues. He started his campaign in Rome by breezing past Dusan Lajovic, Laslo Djere, Karen Khachanov and Jack Draper in the initial few rounds and then brushed aside Lorenzo Musetti in the semifinals. Alcaraz outfoxed the home favorite and in-form Musetti in straight sets, 6-3, 7-6(4).
Without further ado, let's look at AI's prediction for the upcoming finals in Rome. As per Google Gemini, Alcaraz is the favorite to come out on top. Here are three reasons why:
First, Alcaraz's solid head-to-head record against Sinner. He hasn't lost to the Italian in their last three encounters, including one on clay at the 2024 French Open.
Second, the Spaniard's sensational form in the last few weeks. He has only lost one match during the clay court swing and has reached his third consecutive final on the surface.
Third, Alcaraz's mental strength and fitness during marathon encounters. The third seed is usually on the winning side of matches that go the distance, and also outmuscled Sinner during their previous five-set bout in Paris.
Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have both never won the Italian Open in the past
While Jannik Sinner is making his sixth appearance in the Italian Open, Alcaraz is featuring for the second time this year. Neither player has clinched the title in Rome so far.
Sinner reached the quarterfinals of the Italian Open in 2022, which was his best result in Rome. Despite a spirited performance against Stefanos Tsitsipas, the Greek outfoxed him in straight sets 7-6(5), 6-2.
Meanwhile, Alcaraz registered a disappointing third-round appearance in 2023. After a promising win against Albert Ramos, Fabian Marozsan of Hungary eliminated him in straight sets, 6-3, 7-6(4).
