US Open 2025: Men’s singles draw analysis, preview and prediction ft. potential Novak Djokovic-Carlos Alcaraz SF, Jannik Sinner-Jack Draper QF

The season’s final Major, the US Open 2025, will get underway from August 24 and conclude on September 7. Defending champion and World No. 1 Jannik Sinner leads the field, followed by arch-rival Carlos Alcaraz. Novak Djokovic, Ben Shelton, Taylor Fritz and Alexander Zverev are among the other big names in the mix.

Alcaraz and Sinner have won every Major since the Australian Open 2024, and will aim to extend their duopoly with a win in New York as well. The rest of the field will be eager to break their current stranglehold.

The men’s singles draw was unveiled on Thursday, August 21. With the contenders’ fate out in the open, here’s a look at how the US Open 2025 draw could unfold over the next fortnight:

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First Quarter: Jannik Sinner bidding to become the first man to defend the US Open since 2008

Seeded players: (1) Jannik Sinner, (5) Jack Draper, (10) Lorenzo Musetti, (14) Tommy Paul, (23) Alexander Bublik, (24) Flavio Cobolli, (27) Denis Shapovalov and (31) Gabriel Diallo

Expected quarterfinal: Jannik Sinner vs Jack Draper

Dark horse: Marin Cilic

Jannik Sinner will attempt to become the first man since Roger Federer to mount a successful title defense at the US Open. The Swiss ace won the last of his five consecutive titles in New York in 2008, and no man has won back-to-back titles ever since. However, the Italian could buck the trend given his current form.

Sinner has a 31-4 record this year and a 65-4 record on hardcourts since the start of 2024. He has reached the final of every Major since his triumph in New York a year ago. He defended his Australian Open title at the start of the season, held championship points in the French Open final but came up short, and then won Wimbledon. He recently finished as the runner-up at the Cincinnati Open, though he had to abandon the match towards the end of the first set due to an illness.

Sinner will commence his title defense against Vit Kopriva, and will most likely face Alexei Popyrin in the next round. 27th seed Denis Shapovalov is his projected third-round opponent, followed by a potential date with 14th seed Tommy Paul. The Italian will be heavily favored to beat all of them.

Also lurking in his section are 23rd seed Alexander Bublik and former US Open champion Marin Cilic. The former beat Sinner in Halle a couple of months ago, while the latter made the fourth round of Wimbledon. However, both of them are slated to face each other in the first round.

Jack Draper, a semifinalist here a year ago, anchors the other half of this quarter. 31st seed Gabriel Diallo will be his first real test in the third round, followed by a potential fourth-round meeting with 10th seed Lorenzo Musetti. The Brit hasn't played a singles match since his Wimbledon exit due to an injury, so it's tough to predict his form.

However, if Draper is back to his best, then he shouldn't have a problem dealing with anyone in his path until he runs into Sinner in the quarterfinals. The defending champion beat him in the semis last year, and could one-up him one round earlier this time.

Quarterfinal prediction: Jannik Sinner def. Jack Draper

Second Quarter: Alexander Zverev bidding to capture his maiden Major title

Seeded players: (3) Alexander Zverev, (8) Alex de Minaur, (9) Karen Khachanov, (15) Andrey Rublev, (19) Francisco Cerundolo, (22) Ugo Humbert, (25) Felix Auger-Aliassime and (26) Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected quarterfinal: Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur

Dark horse: Gael Monfils

Alexander Zverev has won every significant title in tennis, aside from a Major. He was the runner-up at the US Open 2020, and has made the last eight for the past two years. He was the runner-up at the Australian Open earlier this year, and has a 43-16 record this year. He made the semifinals of the Canadian Open and the Cincinnati Open, so he has arrived in New York in good form.

Zverev will face Alejandro Tabilo in the first round, with former top 10 player Roberto Bautista Agut possibly awaiting him in the second round. 25th seed Felix Auger-Aliassime is his likely opponent in the third round, with a potential date with 15th seed Andrey Rublev after that.

Zverev's current form makes him the favorite to beat all of them. Veteran Gael Monfils is another big name in this part of the draw, and he's always a dangerous player to go up against. Karen Khachanov and Alex de Minaur shouldn't face any issues getting to the fourth round, where they're expected to meet.

De Minaur hasn't beaten a top 10 player this year, so Khachanov will be expected to progress to the quarterfinals to face Zverev. The two have already crossed paths twice this month. Khachanov came out on top at the Canadian Open, and Zverev avenged that loss at the Cincinnati Open. Should they meet again, the German will be favored to win once more.

Quarterfinal prediction: Alexander Zverev def. Karen Khachanov

Third Quarter: Novak Djokovic vying to capture a record 25th Major title

Seeded players: (4) Taylor Fritz, (7) Novak Djokovic, (11) Holger Rune, (16) Jakub Mensik, (17) Frances Tiafoe, (21) Tomas Machac, (28) Alex Michelsen and (30) Brandon Nakashima

Expected quarterfinal: Taylor Fritz vs Novak Djokovic

Dark horse: Sebastian Korda

Last year's US Open runner-up Taylor Fritz headlines this quarter along with 24-time Major champion Novak Djokovic. The American has been in good form for the past couple of months, and made the Wimbledon semifinals. He has received a rather generous draw, with four qualifiers/lucky losers in his section. He should be a lock to reach the fourth round, where he could meet 16th seed Jakub Mensik.

Djokovic's quest for a record 25th Major title has ended with a semifinal loss at the preceding three Majors. He hasn't played since his Wimbledon exit, and will face rising American star Learner Tien in the first round. Another young American, 28th seed Alex Michelsen or his compatriot Sebastian Korda could put him in a spot of bother in the third round.

17th seed Frances Tiafoe, who has reached the US Open semifinals twice in the past three years, could await Djokovic in the fourth round. Given the Serb's consistency at the Majors, he should be able to overcome these tricky opponents to set up a quarterfinal date with Fritz. With a 10-0 winning record against the American, he should be able to move on to the semifinals.

Quarterfinal prediction: Novak Djokovic def. Taylor Fritz

Fourth Quarter: Carlos Alcaraz on the hunt for his second US Open title

Seeded players: (2) Carlos Alcaraz, (6) Ben Shelton, (12) Casper Ruud, (13) Daniil Medvedev, (18) Alejandro Dadidovich Fokina, (20) Jiri Lehecka, (29) Tallon Griekspoor and (32) Luciano Darderi

Expected quarterfinal: Carlos Alcaraz vs Ben Shelton

Dark horse: Corentin Moutet

Since the Monte-Carlo Masters in April, Carlos Alcaraz has reached the final of every tournament he has contested. He won the aforementioned tournament, along with the Italian Open and the French Open, followed by triumphs at the HSBC Championships and more recently, the Cincinnati Open. He also finished as the runner-up at the Barcelona Open and Wimbledon.

Alcaraz won his maiden Major title at the US Open 2022. His quest for a second title in the Big Apple will begin against the big-serving Reilly Opelka. His next big test could come in the fourth round in the form of former US Open champion Daniil Medvedev or 18th seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. While both are tricky opponents to deal with, the Spaniard will be expected to win based on his current form.

Ben Shelton and Casper Ruud are the other big names in this quarter, and based on their opponents in this part of the draw, a fourth-round meeting between them seems imminent. The American recently claimed his maiden Masters 1000 title at the Canadian Open, and will be expected to beat Ruud to make the quarters.

While Shelton has never beaten Alcaraz so far, he gave a good account of himself when they met at the French Open. However, with the support of the home crowd, he could pull off an upset this time.

Quarterfinal prediction: Ben Shelton def. Carlos Alcaraz

Semifinal Predictions

Jannik Sinner def. Alexander Zverev

Novak Djokovic def. Ben Shelton

Final Prediction

Novak Djokovic def. Jannik Sinner

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Rohit

Rohit is a journalist at Sportskeeda who specializes in covering tennis. Having been with the company for three years, he has proven himself as a formidable force in the field. With a Master's degree in law, Rohit brings his analytical and research skills to the forefront as a journalist. He stays on top of the game by using social media platforms and never misses a match for on-court insights. He values giving credit where it's due, keeping his reporting fair and accurate.

At the outset of his career, Rohit found his niche in writing previews and SEO pieces and it's this expertise that continues to define his role at Sportskeeda. He is particularly proud of one article that garnered an impressive 750k views and surpassed his "wildest dreams." Rohit is not particularly fond of (GOAT) debates and it is one of the reasons why he left the legal world behind. He prefers to view players in "tiers," where they're all esteemed to an extent. However, if pressed to name favorites, he would choose Serena and Venus Williams. The Williams sisters' journey from humble beginnings to the pinnacle of tennis has been his greatest source of inspiration.

When he isn't busy making spot-on predictions about match outcomes, Rohit likes reading, particularly fantasy, sci-fi, and comics. As an X-Men fanatic, he's also passionate about board games and enjoys watching movies in his spare time. And don't be surprised if you catch him silently wishing to the tennis gods for the removal of ad scoring from doubles.

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