Iga Swiatek returns to Paris for the 2025 French Open, looking to defend the crown she has won on three consecutive occasions. For the first time in years, though, she will not be among the top-4 seeds at the tournament.
Aryna Sabalenka leads the field as the top seed alongside Coco Gauff, who anchors the bottom half as the second seed. Rankings and seedings, however, don’t always paint the most accurate picture of a player’s chances. For that, one must also take into account their abilities on the surface and the conditions.
Here, we have listed the the top-8 players best positioned to succeed at the French Open based on their performances over the last three years.
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Note: The following formula was used to calculate the power rankings: (1x points earned in the 2025 claycourt swing + 0.5x points earned in the 2024 claycourt swing + 0.25x points earned in the 2023 claycourt swing). To avoid an undue advantage for seeded players receiving early-round byes in the WTA 250 and 500-level events, points are earned by reaching a tournament's quarterfinals or further.
#8 Madison Keys
Madison Keys tasted Grand Slam success Down Under earlier this year. Her triumph came almost a decade after she played her first final at the level, but the period between the two landmark matches was not without its share of big results.
The American is a certified hardcourt maestro, given her big serve and flat, pacey groundstrokes. But she is also someone who can hit through opponents on any surface when her game is working well.
One does not have to look too far back for Keys' most recent title on clay, as she lifted the trophy in Strasbourg last year with wins over the likes of Liudmila Samsonova and Danielle Collins. She also staged deep runs in Madrid (reaching the semifinal) and Rome (the quarterfinals) to give further proof of her prowess on the surface in 2024.
This year, Keys comes into the French Open with limited matches on the European clay. She did, however, make the quarterfinals in Madrid before taking Iga Swiatek to three sets. An inspired Peyton Stearns cut short her stay in Rome.
That said, Keys continues to be a force to reckon with, being No. 7 in the world with 4674 points. If she can find her footing on serve early, she could shake things up in the tournament.
#7 Mirra Andreeva
Mirra Andreeva had her big breakthrough at the French Open last year, tearing apart the draw to make the semifinal as a 17-year-old. She had some big wins, including a famous semifinal victory over Aryna Sabalenka, before she was stopped by Jasmine Paolini.
The 2025 season has brought bigger results for Andreeva, who is now a two-time WTA 1000 champion. Given the sort of momentum she had coming into the clay swing, many expected her to add another trophy to that list.
Andreeva was unable to repeat the early-season heroics but was by no means a pushover. After an early exit in Stuttgart (not many can stay in the rallies against a dialed-in Ekaterina Alexandrova at indoors) reached back-to-back quarterfinals in Madrid and Rome. Each time, she came up short against Coco Gauff.
The losses would have only fuelled Andreeva's hunger heading into the French Open. She has a point to prove after last year's exploits. A dynamic player, the youngster has a lot of elements in her game, her movement in particular, that one needs to have to do well on clay. In short, there is no reason why she cannot repeat (or improve) her result from 12 months ago.
#6 Elena Rybakina
Elena Rybakina might not be the first name to come to mind while having a conversation about favorites for the claycourt Slam. Her biggest results have always come on the quicker courts, including a Wimbledon title and an Australian Open final. That said, she has had her moments on clay.
Runs to the title in Stuttgart in 2024 and Rome in 2023 are a testament to what Rybakina can accomplish on the surface. When dialled in, she can brave any conditions.
The Kazakh's form, too, may have begun to turn just in the nick of time. After a largely forgettable time on clay through most of the season, she finds herself in yet another final on the red dirt in Strasbourg. Fighting wins over Beatriz Haddad Maia and Magda Linette would have given her the much-needed confidence heading into Paris. She will be keen on keeping the winning momentum going and improving on her quarterfinal finish from last year.
#5 Elina Svitolina
Only three players (Victoria Azarenka, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, and Petra Kvitova) have played more French Open matches than Elina Svitolina. That's the wealth of experience the four-time quarterfinalist brings to Paris.
Of the 40 matches she has played, the Ukrainian has won 29 for a Slam-best 72% winning percentage. She was a quarterfinalist here as recently as 2023. Besides, she has won titles at Open De Rouen this year and Strasbourg in 2023.
Svitolina has been playing some of her best tennis of late. After her showing in Madrid and Rome, where she made the semifinals and quarterfinals with wins over Elena Rybakina, Danielle Collins, and Maria Sakkari among others, she is now inching closer to a top-10 return.
It does not take too long for one to see how her game is well-suited for the surface. Svitolina is an incredible mover, gets an insane number of balls back in play, and can redirect pace well. A newfound aggression ever since her return to the sport post-maternity has only added value to her game, and she will be a tricky customer in the French capital.
#4 Jasmine Paolini
Last year’s French Open was the moment when Jasmine Paolini found her stride on the big stage, proving all the naysayers wrong by making it to the summit clash of a Grand Slam for the first time in her career.
The Italian beat two Major champions, Bianca Andreescu and Elena Rybakina en route, and was at her very best to fend off Mirra Andreeva in the semifinals. She was second, as most are, against Iga Swiatek in the final, but her incredible dynamism and on-court attitude had made her a crowd favorite no less.
Coming in 2025, a lot of people had questions about Paolini’s ability to sustain her form from the breakthrough 2024 season. For a long time, it looked like the pressure was taking its toll.
The Italian, however, struck form in Miami and brought it to her beloved clay. It was at her home tournament, the Italian Open, that Paolini shut down all detractors once again, capturing the trophy after a sensational fortnight that saw her beat Ons Jabeur, Jelena Ostapenko, and Coco Gauff. A return to Paris, which will bring back plenty of good memories, in such form could spell trouble for the rest of the field.
#3 Coco Gauff
Between her US Open triumph and WTA Finals win, the tennis world seems to have forgotten just how good Coco Gauff can be on clay. After all, her first Grand Slam final came on the red dirt of Paris in 2022.
Back-to-back runs to the Madrid and Rome finals this year are a reminder of just what the American is capable of doing on clay, a surface that gives her the extra fraction of a second to adjust her forehand that can otherwise crack under pressure.
Gauff has not lost before the quarterfinals at the French Open (made the QF in 2023 and SF in 2024) in the last few years. Her 20-5 (80%) win-loss at the tournament is her best at Grand Slams. Provided that she continues to problem-solve the issues with her serve and forehand, she could well find herself coming very close to the trophy yet again.
#2 Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka seems determined to shed her image of being just a hardcourt expert. Her triumph in Madrid tied her with Petra Kvitova for the most number of titles at one of the biggest clay events of the calendar.
Her past two attempts at the French Open have hit hurdles in the form of inspired opponents, Karolina Muchova in the 2023 semifinal and Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinal last year. The losses, however, should not take away from the incredible work that she has put in at the tournament.
Her 34 match wins this season are the highest by any player, so form should not be a question. It will come down to her ability to find a Plan B for days when things are not going according to the script. Muchova and Andreeva were able to weave a web around Sabalenka, who tends to grow frustrated with her opponents.
Clay is the least forgiving of surfaces, and hitting harder is not always the solution, as the World No. 1 would like to think. She has a variety in her game that is often underused. The natural courts in Paris could well be the perfect playground for all that experimenting.
#1 Iga Swiatek
While her recent form may put her behind a few others in terms of being the favorite to walk away with the trophy at the end of the French Open. But when you look at the recent three-year period on clay, she has the math favoring her by some distance.
Three consecutive French Open triumphs have put her in another league altogether. She has lost at the venue only twice in her young career. The overall 35-2 win-loss at the tournament accounts for an incredible 95% winning percentage.
Besides, who can forget her bulldozing through the entire clay season in 2022 and nearly pulling it off again in 2024?
Swiatek has already won every big title on the red dirt. If she could just take some pressure off herself, it might lift her game instantly. Yes, there are players who can hit much bigger than her, but very few can match her in other aspects like mentality and the topspin that she puts on the forehand.
The clay, as in the case with Coco Gauff, gives Swiatek that extra wiggle room to set up her groundstrokes. Very few women hit the ball with as much shape, and those groundstrokes will be a big asset on court. For them to flow more smoothly, the four-time champ simply needs to remind herself of the legacy she has carved in the circuit.
