The 2025 French Open will officially enter its second week with fourth-round matches ready to commence on Day 8 (June 1). As the stakes rise, so does the unpredictability.
The early rounds were filled with surprise exits, including Taylor Fritz, Emma Navarro, Leylah Fernandez, Barbora Krejcikova, Denis Shapovalov, and Daniil Medvedev. All of these stars packed their bags earlier than many would have expected.
Now, with the fourth round upon us, matchups are increasingly between seeded players. This makes the differences between the favorite and the underdog smaller. But, upsets remain very much in play.
Players like Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, Carlos Alcaraz, and Jannik Sinner have all progressed to the Round of 16, but their paths get trickier from here. Swiatek faces in-form Elena Rybakina, Sabalenka battles the powerful Amanda Anisimova, and Alcaraz and Sinner face tough physical tests from fellow seeds with momentum.
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In matchups where the rankings might favor one player, there are several other deciding factors. Let’s take a look at a few Day 8 matchups where an upset could be around the corner.
12th seed Elena Rybakina to upset French Open defending champion Iga Swiatek in three sets
Iga Swiatek's dominance at Roland Garros is well-established, boasting four titles and a 24-match winning streak on Parisian clay. However, Elena Rybakina presents a strong challenge in the fourth round.
Their head-to-head record stands evenly at 4-4, with Rybakina winning two of their battles on clay. She defeated the Pole in Stuttgart last year and in Rome in 2023.
Rybakina's recent form is impressive. She clinched the Strasbourg title just before the French Open and has advanced to the fourth round, dropping just a set, including a commanding 6-2, 6-2 win over Jelena Ostapenko.
In contrast, Swiatek's 2025 season has been inconsistent, with no titles or finals appearances since her 2024 French Open triumph. Given Rybakina's current momentum and favorable head-to-head record, she is well-positioned to upset the defending champion.
16th seed Amanda Anisimova to shock World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka enters the fourth round of the French Open in formidable form, boasting a 37-6 season record and titles in Madrid, Miami, and Brisbane.
However, Amanda Anisimova presents a significant challenge. The American leads their head-to-head 5-2, including a straight-sets win in their last meeting at the 2024 Toronto quarterfinals. Notably, Anisimova also triumphed over Sabalenka at Roland Garros in 2019, during her run to the semifinals.
Anisimova has also been in fine form this season. She boasts a 19-9 record heading into the fourth-round clash, including the WTA 1000 title in Qatar. Her impressive performances have continued into Roland Garros as she pulled off a straight-sets victory over Clara Tauson in the third round.
While Sabalenka's current form is undeniable, Anisimova's favorable head-to-head record and recent performances suggest she has the tools to orchestrate an upset.
Daniel Altmaier to get the better of 15th seed Frances Tiafoe in five sets
Frances Tiafoe, seeded 15th, has showcased solid form at the 2025 French Open, securing straight-set victories over Roman Safiullin, Pablo Carreño Busta, and Sebastian Korda. However, his overall clay-court record this season stood at 7-6 before Roland Garros, indicating some inconsistency on the surface.
Daniel Altmaier, ranked 66th, has been impressive on clay this year with a 10-6 record, including qualifiers. Notably, he caused a significant upset by defeating World No. 4 Taylor Fritz in the first round. Altmaier's comfort on clay and recent performances suggest he has the tools to challenge Tiafoe.
While Tiafoe leads their head-to-head 2-0, both victories were hard-fought, including a three-set win on clay in Rome in 2023. Given Altmaier's current form and proficiency on clay, he stands a strong chance of overturning previous results.
25th seed Alexei Popyrin to upset 12th Tommy Paul in four sets
Tommy Paul, seeded 12th, is in strong form at the 2025 French Open, reaching the fourth round with victories over Elmer Moller, Marton Fucsovics, and 24th seed Karen Khachanov. However, his clay-court season has been inconsistent.
Alexei Popyrin, seeded 25th, impressed in Monte-Carlo, his first event on clay this season. His aggressive baseline play and powerful serve have been particularly effective on the slower surface.
Their head-to-head record is tied at 1-1, and this will be their first meeting on clay. Popyrin's adaptability on clay suggests he has the tools to challenge Paul effectively.
