Iga Swiatek had dropped down to No. 8 in the WTA rankings a few weeks ago, her lowest ranking in nearly four years. However, her Wimbledon triumph pushed her back to No. 3. She’s now in a position to overtake Coco Gauff as the World No. 2 after the latter’s exit from the Canadian Open 2025.
Gauff was shown the door by home favorite Victoria Mboko in the fourth round on Saturday, August 2, going down 6-1 6-4. She will still add 120 points to her tally after this result, so when the WTA rankings are updated after the tournament, she will have 7,789 points to her name.
Swiatek has reached the fourth round of the Canadian Open with comfortable wins over Guo Hanyu and Eya Lys. She will take on Clara Tauson in the fourth round on Sunday, August 3. She recently beat the Dane 6-4, 6-1 en route to the Wimbledon title a few weeks ago.
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Swiatek currently has 6,813 points. By reaching the fourth round, she has gained another 120 points. She could further increase her total with more wins in Montreal. Winning the title would leave her with 7,813 points, which would help her rank ahead of Gauff when the rankings are updated.
This would mean the battle for the second seed at the US Open would come down to whoever performs the best at the Cincinnati Open. If Swiatek wins the Canadian Open, then only 24 points would separate her and Gauff in the rankings, thus making the Cincinnati Open of paramount importance for both players.
However, everything hinges on Swiatek winning the title. If she loses to Tauson in the fourth round, then she would have 6,933 points at the start of the Cincinnati Open, leaving Gauff ahead by 856 points. If the Pole loses in the quarterfinals of the Canadian Open, then she will have 7,028 points.
A semifinal exit will leave Swiatek with 7,203 points, while a runner-up finish will push her rankings tally to 7,463 points. Winning the title is the best possible outcome for her in order to cement her chances of being the World No. 2.
Being the second seed would mean avoiding World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka until the final of the US Open. She will have 12,225 points at the start of the Cincinnati Open, where she's the defending champion. She's also the defending champion at the US Open.
Winning the Canadian Open could also set the stage for Swiatek's potential ascension to the top of the rankings. She has put herself in a good position to make a play for the top spot despite the massive gulf between her and Sabalenka in the WTA rankings at the moment.
Iga Swiatek could reclaim the No. 1 ranking from Aryna Sabalenka in the coming weeks
Aryna Sabalenka currently has 12,420 points, and will have 12,225 points once the WTA rankings are updated after the Canadian Open 2025. Depending on Iga Swiatek's final result at the ongoing WTA 1000 tournament, her total could stand anywhere between 6,933 points to 7,813 points.
That would still leave Sabalenka with a lead of at least 4,412 points if Swiatek wins the Canadian Open. She will have a lead of 5,292 points if the Pole goes out in the fourth round. While this seems like a healthy lead for the reigning World No. 1, that may not be enough in the end.
Sabalenka is defending 3,000 points on account of being the defending champion at the Cincinnati Open and the US Open. No woman has defended either title for over a decade, with Serena Williams being the last player to do so on the WTA Tour. She won back-to-back titles in Cincinnati in 2014 and 2015, and won three in a row at the US Open from 2012 onwards.
While Sabalenka has been a beacon of consistency this year, she has also cracked under pressure. She lost to Madison Keys and Coco Gauff in the Australian Open and French Open finals respectively, and went down to Amanda Anisimova in the Wimbledon semifinals, all in three sets.
With the US Open being Sabalenka's final chance to win a Major this year, she could wilt under pressure once again. She's also the defending champion at the Wuhan Open, and has 400 points to defend at the WTA Finals as well.
Swiatek, in comparison, has only 830 points to defend for the rest of the year. She has 430 points to defend at the US Open and another 400 points to worry about at the WTA Finals. Even though she made the semifinals of the Cincinnati Open last year, the 390 points she earned for the same were docked as a penalty for testing positive for a banned substance last year.
Swiatek also missed the two WTA 1000 tournaments in Asia last year, thus leaving her with plenty of opportunities to dethrone Sabalenka from the summit. Thus, it wouldn't be too surprising to see her sitting atop the WTA rankings once again in the near future.
