How Naomi Osaka can reach her first Wimbledon semifinal after 2025 draw falls apart

Amidst the ongoing carnage at Wimbledon 2025, four-time Major champion Naomi Osaka is through to the third round. 16 seeded players from the women’s draw have been eliminated so far, with there being room for additional casualties before the second round wraps up on Thursday, July 3.

“Chaos is a ladder”, the famous phrase from Game of Thrones could be apt for Osaka if she plays her cards right. With most of the big names out of her way, she has a chance to make a deep run at the grass court Major for the first time. She commenced her campaign with a 6-4, 7-6 (4) win over qualifier Talia Gibson.

Osaka was projected to meet fifth seed Zheng Qinwen in the second round. However, Katerina Siniakova had other plans and upset the Chinese in the first round, though she couldn’t get the better of the former World No. 1, losing to her 6-3, 6-2.

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Osaka has now reached the third round of Wimbledon for the first time since 2018 and for the second time at any Major since her return to the tour last year. She will face former French Open finalist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the third round, who upset 31st seed Ashlyn Krueger in the second round.

The Japanese leads Pavlyuchenkova 2-1 in the head-to-head. Victories against her older rival have also resulted in titles down the line for her. She went all the way at the Pan Pacific Open 2019 in Tokyo and Australian Open 2021 after beating the Russian.

Another win over Pavlyuchenkova will put Osaka in the fourth round of Wimbledon for the first time in her career. Either Sonay Kartal or qualifier Diane Parry could be waiting for her at this stage. This part of the draw originally had 12th seed Diana Shnaider and 20th seed Jelena Ostapenko, who lost in the second and first rounds, respectively.

If Osaka gets past either Kartal or Parry, then 13th seed Amanda Anisimova is likely to be her quarterfinal opponent. The latter won both of their previous matches in 2022, ousting her from the Australian Open and the French Open. This could be a tricky encounter for her, though there's still time for the American to suffer a shock exit, the theme for this year's Wimbledon.

This part of the draw also held last year's runner-up and fourth seed Jasmine Paolini, along with 21st seed Beatriz Haddad Maia. Both of them lost in the second round. 30th seed Linda Noskova is still in the running, with Kamilla Rakhimova and Dalma Galfi being the other two players. Except for Anisimova, Osaka will certainly fancy her chances against all of them.

Osaka would then progress to her first semifinal at Wimbledon, and her first at any Major since winning her fourth and most recent Major title at the Australian Open 2021. While she will face the best of the best in the semifinals and the final, she also remains unbeaten at the Majors once she gets past the fourth round.

Naomi Osaka could meet either Aryna Sabalenka or Madison Keys in the Wimbledon 2025 semifinals

Naomi Osaka is likely to encounter either World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka or reigning Australian Open champion Madison Keys in the semifinals of Wimbledon 2025. She beat the Belarusian in three sets en route to her maiden Major title at the US Open 2018. It was one of the most memorable matches of the tournament, and the only set she dropped during the fortnight.

Many predicted Osaka and Sabalenka to be long-term rivals after the match. However, they've never crossed paths since their first and only meeting so far. Their peaks haven't coincided either, with the Japanese ruling the tour between 2018 and 2021, while the Belarusian's ongoing dominance kicked off in 2023.

Keys leads Osaka 3-1 in the head-to-head. The latter's only win in this match-up came during her title-winning run at the US Open 2018, their most recent encounter. However, the new and improved version of the American will be quite difficult to beat.

Top 10 players Iga Swiatek and Mirra Andreeva, along with former Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina, and defending champion Barbora Krejcikova are the favorites to reach the final from the bottom half of the draw. Second seed Coco Gauff and third seed Jessica Pegula were the most high-profile upsets from this half of the draw, with both of them making first-round exits.

Osaka has never crossed paths against Andreeva and Rybakina. She trails 1-2 in the head-to-head record against Swiatek, and almost caused a huge upset when they met at last year's French Open.

Swiatek was the two-time defending champion in Paris and ran into Osaka in the second round. The latter held a match point but couldn't close out the match, falling shy of a massive win on the Pole's favorite court. If they meet in the final here, their first match since their French Open epic, then it could be another thrilling showdown between the two.

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Rohit

Rohit is a journalist at Sportskeeda who specializes in covering tennis. Having been with the company for three years, he has proven himself as a formidable force in the field. With a Master's degree in law, Rohit brings his analytical and research skills to the forefront as a journalist. He stays on top of the game by using social media platforms and never misses a match for on-court insights. He values giving credit where it's due, keeping his reporting fair and accurate.

At the outset of his career, Rohit found his niche in writing previews and SEO pieces and it's this expertise that continues to define his role at Sportskeeda. He is particularly proud of one article that garnered an impressive 750k views and surpassed his "wildest dreams." Rohit is not particularly fond of (GOAT) debates and it is one of the reasons why he left the legal world behind. He prefers to view players in "tiers," where they're all esteemed to an extent. However, if pressed to name favorites, he would choose Serena and Venus Williams. The Williams sisters' journey from humble beginnings to the pinnacle of tennis has been his greatest source of inspiration.

When he isn't busy making spot-on predictions about match outcomes, Rohit likes reading, particularly fantasy, sci-fi, and comics. As an X-Men fanatic, he's also passionate about board games and enjoys watching movies in his spare time. And don't be surprised if you catch him silently wishing to the tennis gods for the removal of ad scoring from doubles.

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