When the French Open 2025 draw was unveiled a week ago, defending champion Carlos Alcaraz’s road to the final looked rather tricky. However, with the conclusion of the second-round matches of the bottom half of the draw, in which he’s placed, some of his projected rivals are already out of his way.
Alcaraz commenced his title defense with wins over Guilio Zeppieri and Fabian Marozsan. As per the seedings, he was due to face 31st seed Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the third round. However, the big-serving Frenchman was ousted by Damir Dzumhur in the second round.
Dzumhur’s last win over a top 10 player came in September 2017 and he has a 4-19 record against them, thus being a relatively easier opponent for Alcaraz to deal with. 20th seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, the runner-up here in 2021, could have been the Spaniard’s potential fourth-round adversary.
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Instead, Tsitsipas was stunned by qualifier Matteo Gigante in the second round. It marked his earliest exit from the French Open since 2018, when he also lost in the second round. Alcaraz remains on track to meet 13th seed Ben Shelton in the fourth round, though the American has to get past Gigante in the third round.
Seventh seed Casper Ruud was the defending champion's expected quarterfinal opponent. The Norwegian reached back-to-back finals in Paris in 2022 and 2023, and was a semifinalist a year ago. He was sent packing by Nuno Borges in the second round this time.
Since his second-round exit from the clay court Major in 2018 on his debut, Ruud had reached at least the third round. He attributed his latest loss to an injury during his post-match conference. 12th seed Tommy Paul is the favorite to be Alcaraz's new quarterfinal opponent. However, he's looking far from his best and rallied from two sets down to beat Marton Fucsovics in the second round.
Alcaraz was expected to bump into fourth seed Taylor Fritz in the semifinals. The American was knocked out by Daniel Altmaier in the first round itself, bringing an end to his disappointing clay swing. However, despite the American's loss, there remains another in-form player who could challenge him in the semifinals.
Eighth seed Lorenzo Musetti, who's having an excellent clay swing, is now the top choice to be Alcaraz's semifinal opponent. The Spaniard has already beaten him twice in recent weeks, first in the Monte-Carlo Masters final and later in the semifinals of the Italian Open. Although, with the way this tournament is shaping up, even the Italian could be eliminated prior to the semifinals.
Other seed players to be tossed out of the tournament from Alcaraz's half of the draw include 21st seed Tomas Machac, 28th seed Brandon Nakashima and 32nd seed Alex Michelsen. 10th seed Holger Rune and 15th seed Frances Tiafoe are some of the other well-known seeded players still left standing.
Carlos Alcaraz still on track to meet either one of Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic or Alexander Zverev in the French Open final
Despite the chaos in the bottom half of the French Open draw, the top half has remained largely intact, at least for now. Top seed Jannik Sinner, third seed Alexander Zverev and sixth seed Novak Djokovic are still in the running to reach the summit clash.
Zverev lost to Carlos Alcaraz in last year's championship round in five sets. Aside from an ATP 500 title, he has underperformed by his lofty standards during the clay swing. Djokovic captured his milestone 100th career title at the Geneva Open a day before the start of the French Open.
Djokovic and Zverev and set to collide in the quarterfinals, provided neither of them loses prior to that. Whoever wins the quarterfinal showdown will meet top seed Sinner in the semifinals. The Italian has lost only to Carlos Alcaraz in the past nine months.
Starting with his triumph at the Cincinnati Open in August 2024, Sinner has compiled an impressive 41-2 record. He has reached the final of every tournament he contested during this period and both of his losses have come against Alcaraz.
The two recently crossed paths in the Italian Open final, with the Spaniard coming out on top in straight sets. It marked his fourth consecutive win against Sinner. They also met in the semifinals of last year's French Open. Alcaraz needed five sets to dispatch his rival.
Given Sinner's form, he's the favorite to reach the final from the top half of the draw. He won the preceding two Majors as well, winning the US Open for the first time last year and defending his Australian Open crown earlier this year. The Italian will be keen to continue his unbeaten streak at Grand Slams and finally one-up Alcaraz, who has been the only player to dent his aura over the past year.
Alcaraz, meanwhile, is gunning to capture his fifth Major title and become the first player other than Rafael Nadal to defend the French Open in recent times. Given his recent results, a title defense is well within the realm of possibility.
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